Ranking NFL playoff teams: Why a No. 5 seed sits atop the field, plus Eagles are looming large

The powerful NFC West, with three teams in the playoff field, has Super Bowl aspirations

After 18 weeks and countless twists and turns, the playoffs are upon us. It figures to be one of the most wide-open Super Bowl races in recent memory.

The Seattle Seahawks, quarterbacked by a player with zero career playoff wins, are the Super Bowl favorites at +360 -- the longest odds by the favorite entering the postseason since 2021. One could argue for just about any team in the AFC. It is wide, wide open.

That makes ranking all 14 teams difficult. There are such small differences between many of these teams. Here's some insight as to the reasoning used below:

1. Head-to-head results matter, but perhaps not as much as one might think. The Los Angeles Rams lost to the Carolina Panthers. That doesn't mean Carolina belongs ahead of Los Angeles.
2. Quarterbacks matter most. Look at the teams that have won it all recently; teams don't win without good quarterbacks.
3. Pass rushes matter second-most. Look at the teams that have won it all recently, and you'll see lots of game-changing pass rushers/pass rushes.
   
4. Superb units/players after that matter third-most.
5. Matchups matter ... at first. A friendly wild card round draw helps, but because we can't predict beyond that, matchup influence stops there.

1. Los Angeles Rams (No. 5 seed, NFC)

The Rams are the NFL's best team, and if they'd just behaved like it on one or two more plays, it would be more obvious. Matthew Stafford has played at an MVP level, even if he doesn't actually win the award. Puka Nacua is nearly unstoppable, and the return of Davante Adams should only make the NFL's best offense even more dangerous. He's not the only starter who will be back for the postseason: Left tackle Alaric Jackson and defensive back Quentin Lake will also join the party.

The Rams led the Eagles by 19 in the third quarter and the Seahawks by 16 in the fourth quarter and somehow lost both games. A big reason was special teams miscues, but the Rams have since replaced their kicker and their coordinator. The defense can be susceptible, especially when the pass rush isn't wreaking havoc, but if the Rams can simply finish games, they are the rightful Super Bowl favorites.

2. Seattle Seahawks (No. 1 seed, NFC)

If we're going to explain the Rams' meltdowns, we also have to appreciate the teams who made them. The Seahawks enter the playoffs having won seven straight games, including their last three straight over fellow playoff teams. Seattle's defense is downright dominant, leading the NFL in both net yards per pass attempt allowed, yards per rush allowed and third-down conversion rate allowed.

The offense, led by Sam Darnold, can be hit-or-miss, but the running game looked better down the stretch, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become an absolute star, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has done a terrific job. Still, there are more questions offensively -- in fact, only the Vikings have more turnovers this year -- than the Rams have. For as terrific as this team is, it could be one Darnold dud away from a disappointing exit.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3 seed, AFC)

Say hello to the NFL's best team over the past month and a half. After blowing a huge lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans in Week 10, the Jaguars ripped off eight straight wins with a +153 point differential. The next-best in the NFL since Week 11 was +88.

Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his NFL career, and that's in large part due to the arrival of Jakobi Meyers, who has been everything Jacksonville needed and then some at wide receiver. On defense, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are wreaking havoc. The Jaguars' winning streak includes a 29-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers and a 14-point win at the Denver Broncos. This team is legit.

4. Denver Broncos (No. 1 seed, AFC)

The Broncos have the huge advantages of a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Bo Nix has shown a flair for the dramatic -- his seven game-winning drives this season are most in the NFL -- and he rarely takes sacks behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines/protection schemes.

But the defense is what has carried this team. The Broncos allow the second-fewest yards per play in the NFL, lead the league is sacks and have standouts at pass rusher (Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen) and at cornerback (Patrick Surtain II).

5. Philadelphia Eagles (No. 3 seed, NFC)

The days of offensive infighting and defensive struggles seem long gone. Since the Eagles' Week 9 bye, Philadelphia has allowed the fewest points in the NFL. A.J. Brown has become a bigger part of the offense. Saquon Barkley has been a bit more productive.

These aren't last year's Eagles, who won the Super Bowl. But they're not as far away from that form as they were earlier this year. For all of Jalen Hurts' shortcomings and struggles, he has some monster postseason games to his name, too.

6. New England Patriots (No. 2 seed, AFC)

The Patriots have the likely MVP in Drake Maye and a running game that has slowly improved as the season has gone on. TreVeyon Henderson's emergence alongside veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has been a big help. The defense has some holes but should be in a good spot, health-wise, going into the postseason. Left tackle Will Campbell and defensive lineman Milton Williams returning are two huge developments, and several players who missed Week 18 should be back, too. 

7. Buffalo Bills (No. 6 seed, AFC)

Josh Allen is 7-6 in his playoff career. Four of the six losses are to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Guess who isn't in the playoffs this season? The Chiefs.

That may make it seem like a must-do year for Allen and Buffalo, and Allen's postseason resume is outstanding. Plus, James Cook has been tremendous on the ground. But there are still huge issues on both sides. The wide receiver group is a mess. So is the run defense. If we were ranking playoff quarterbacks, Allen might be No. 1. But given the circumstances around him, it's hard to have his team much higher than this. 

8. Houston Texans (No. 5 seed, AFC)

Houston's defense is downright fearsome. Will Anderson Jr. (21% pressure rate, 12 sacks) is one of the NFL's best players regardless of position, and he's only second on his own team in sacks -- Danielle Hunter has 15. On the back end, Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the league's best cornerbacks 

The offense is a different story. There are times when C.J. Stroud looks like his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year-winning self, and there are times when he looks like the disappointing 2024 version of himself. It's hard to trust a team whose margin for error offensively is so thin.

9. Los Angeles Chargers (No. 7 seed, AFC)

The Chargers are an offensive line away from being in the top half of these rankings. The problem is the current offensive line is awful. Only the Cleveland Browns have a lower Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade. With no Rashawn Slater and no Joe Alt, the Chargers' tackles in particular are disasters. Justin Herbert has been hit more than any quarterback in the NFL.

And yet, there's still Herbert -- who can play Super Man with the best of them -- and the best defense he's ever had on the other side. The Chargers are aggressive (second-highest interception rate) yet also sound (sixth in explosive plays allowed) and clutch in big situations (first in goal-to-go defense). There's a world where Herbert hero ball is enough. There's also a world where the offensive line is simply overwhelmed.   

10. Chicago Bears (No. 2 seed, NFC)

The Bears are one of the NFL's best stories this season. Ben Johnson has brought an outstanding offensive scheme to the Windy City, making Chicago one of the NFL's best rushing teams and elevating Caleb Williams. The Bears won seven games by six points or fewer, tied for most in the NFL.

But Chicago's defense is all-or-nothing. The Bears are first in turnovers forced per drive but 29th in yards per play allowed and 26th in touchdown rate allowed. That's just not viable, especially against some of the league's best in the postseason.

11. San Francisco 49ers (No. 6 seed, NFC)

The 49ers were playing for the NFC's No. 1 seed just a few days ago. How do they end up here? Well, they spent most of the season crushing an underwhelming schedule -- they went 4-4 against teams in the playoffs and 8-1 against teams not in the playoffs -- and the defense is a mess. San Francisco has the lowest sack rate and the second-lowest interception rate in the NFL. The Fred Warner and Nick Bosa injuries loom large.

Brock Purdy has rejuvenated the offense, but even then, things are a bit thin in the weapons department behind Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. If this was a much healthier team, it would be a top-tier contender. As such, it doesn't qualify.

12. Green Bay Packers (No. 7 seed, NFC)

There was a time just over a month ago when the Packers would have been on the other end of the other end of this ranking, but season-ending injuries to Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt have decimated Green Bay's pass rush and rush defense, respectively. The offense has been hit hard with injuries, too, though Jordan Love's return from a concussion should pay dividends.

There's certainly a world where Love catches fire to lift the Packers to a win. Maybe even two wins. More than that, though, seems doubtful.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 4 seed, AFC)

The Steelers are who the Steelers have been for the last several years: good enough for a playoff berth, but likely not good enough to win a playoff game. Pittsburgh made the postseason thanks to a 26-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens that ended on a missed Tyler Loop field goal. But a week earlier, they also lost to the Browns with a chance to wrap up the division. Aaron Rodgers will have DK Metcalf back for the postseason, but this offense is simply too uneven. Pittsburgh has lost six straight playoff games by following a similar season path to this one. Rinse and repeat.

14. Carolina Panthers (No. 4 seed, NFC)

The NFC South winner was always going to land here, and the fact that they made the field despite losing in Week 18 is fitting: Carolina is in the playoffs at 8-9 simply because the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints one day after Carolina blew a chance to clinch the division, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The last team to win a playoff game without a winning record was, coincidentally, the 2014 Panthers, but don't expect a repeat 11 years later.